Thursday, January 6, 2011

Recession Over

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In September the official body that determines the dates of recessions announced that the U.S. recession had ended in June 2009.

In Connecticut, and around the country, the collective response was: You've got to be kidding me.

It was a frustrating year for some retailers, as customers remained careful with their spending; for workers who had to do several people's jobs because their workplace hasn't returned to pre-recession staffing; and most of all, for the unemployed.

Connecticut started the year at 9 percent unemployment, and in November, the last month reported, that rate was still 9 percent. In between, it ticked up to 9.2 percent and fell to 8.8 percent. But outside of health care, food services and temporary employment — with the census or through agencies — it was a dreary year for job growth.

From January to November, the state only added 10,600 jobs. A good recovery would have produced twice that many. The picture may be worse still, as the state Department of Labor said this month it might revise the 2010 tally downward. And even those who returned to work often took substantial pay cuts to do so.

But it wasn't all bad news for Connecticut's economy. Manufacturing, battered for decades, has rebounded more than many other sectors. In 2009, many production workers were working partial weeks. In 2010, most returned to full-time schedules. And there were 1,500 more manufacturing jobs in November than at the beginning of the year.

As of November there were 170,000 state residents out of work and actively looking for jobs. About 30 percent of job-seekers have been out of work for a year or more — a record high — and that group is the least likely to be hired, labor statistics show.

Economists believe the first half of next year will be a lot like this year — gradually getting better, but not enough hiring to make a dent in the long-term unemployed.

And, to a large degree because of the joblessness, the foreclosure wave hasn't peaked in Connecticut yet.

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