KFOR

KFOR: During the last several days, there has been a flurry of news reports about US elements of KFOR moving into northern Kosovo. Albanians tended to see this as a good thing as it would seem to support extending Pristina's authority north of the Ibar. Northern Serbs reacted negatively for the same reason. But there is probably less here than meets the eye.

The changes underway in KFOR reflect NATO's decision – announced last October – to slim down to 5000 troops by March of this year from its then current 10000. Already, KFOR has been reducing to around 8000 with some contingents – like the Finns – departing along the way. This creates the need to reduce the number of battalions in KFOR from four to two. The two remaining battalions will be headquartered in Pec and Ferizaj. The French reportedly will be leaving Camp Belvedere (a great loss for anyone who had regular access to the excellent restaurant there). But it appears that the north will continue to be the responsibility of the French, who will remain headquartered in Novo Selo as part of the battalion "commanded" by the Americans from Camp Bondsteel. Reportedly, some US troops also will be operating in the north this spring.

None of this suggests that the US is getting ready to seize control of the north and turn it over to Pristina, because:

    *
      The French will retain responsibility on the ground for security in the north. They will not be part of, or allow, any adventurism in the north on their watch. March 2008 was enough for them.
    * No nation takes orders from other nations in KFOR. Important matters are referred first to capitals. It is unlikely that Paris would want France entangled in any use of force against Serbs. (And it is hard to imagine the French taking orders from Americans.)
    * The US has sent troops to the north before without creating issues. The US also has ample problems elsewhere without getting into a shooting war in the mountains of the Balkans as well.
    *
      KFOR as a whole has pulled back over the last several months from suggesting any role in settling remaining political issues in Kosovo, and especially in the north.



It may be that some, including the US Embassy in Pristina, see these changes as a good way to sooth Kosovo Albanian feelings about the lack of progress last year with the so-called northern strategy. They may also hope the northern Serbs will perhaps grow anxious enough over the possibility of US troops in their backyards to become more compliant. But in my experience, military professionals are usually much more cautious about use of force than are their civilian counterparts. There seems little reason to suspect that NATO will throw such caution to the wind to seek to change the status quo in the north through force.

On another note, the membership of the UN Security Council will be changing as of this month. Colombia, Germany, India, Portugal and South Africa take their seats. India and South Africa do not recognize Kosovo while the other three do. Little change can therefore be expected from this direction unless Belgrade and Pristina reach some agreement that can galvanize another UNSC resolution. This remains unlikely for this year.